Tag
markets
3 items tagged with this.
BTC 5-minute markets — a plain-language reference
June 2026The Brownian fair-value model, the market-making skew algorithm and what every test returned, written in plain language. A companion to the full microstructure study rather than a replacement for it.
The verifier-first protocol
June 2026Five different 'edges' in Polymarket's 5-minute crypto markets, and the three tests that killed all of them.
Microstructure and Efficiency of Polymarket's 5-Minute Cryptocurrency Binary Markets
June 2026Over ~84 hours of recorded order-book data we reverse-engineer the dominant market maker as a Brownian-probit pricer, then test every candidate edge. None survives cost-inclusive out-of-sample verification. The negative result is the finding; the protocol that produced it is what transfers.